Hispalink has placed Castilla y León as the autonomous community that will register the most moderate growth of its economy in 2021, with 4.2 percent, 2.2 points below the average for the country, which is specifically at 6.4 percent.
This is stated in the update of the regional economic growth predictions of the Hispalink network for the years 2021 and 2022 that it is carried out “in a scenario full of uncertainty and with many conditions still to be resolved” and that, according to the analysts, submits to regional econometric models “to an extraordinary test of predictive performance.”
According to this report collected by Europa Press, the growth interval reflects a disparity between the autonomous regions of 3.6 points in the intensity of this economic recovery in 2021, with better forecasts for the Balearic Islands (7.8 percent) -was the territory most affected by the crisis in 2020- while the most moderate performance would occur in Castilla y León (4.2 percent) compared to the national growth of 6.4 percent, as a result of the weighted aggregation of growth rates of regional GDP.
Hispalink places the greatest pull of the economy of Castilla y León in the services sector, with 4.8 percent, followed by the industrial sector, which would equal the average of 4.2 percent, and construction, with 4, 1 percent, while agriculture would stay in the red and subtract 2.2 percent, compared to a positive 1.6 percent in Spain.
Regarding the year 2022, Hispalink recognizes that it is difficult to venture at this time what may happen beyond 2021 on a national scale, a circumstance that is aggravated when descending to the scope of the autonomous communities, since “the uncertainty and the conditions are very high” .
To this he adds that we must consider the “final effect of the scars” that the pandemic will leave both in social aspects and in the adjustments in the labor market and in the deterioration of the business fabric, “beyond the imbalances in the public accounts “.
However, he considers that “the most likely bet” is a return to an almost “normal” situation in 2022 when economic activity will approach levels prior to the pandemic and specifically forecasts a still intense growth in Spain’s GDP of 5 , 0 percent increase compared to 2021, with 3.8 percent in the case of Castilla y León, which would once again record the most moderate growth in the country.
The pull of the economy of Castilla y León in 2022 would be led by construction, with 6.2 percent, followed by industry and services, with 3.7 percent in both cases, with agriculture a la cola, with 2.9 percent.
Hispalink insists that the forecasts for 2021 are presented in the context of the persistence of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spanish territory, with outbreaks of “controlled” infections in the sense of not posing a threat in the context of hospital pressure, “although you cannot lower your guard,” he recommends.
“Beyond some greater or lesser dynamism, it is important not to lose perspective and consider that this rebound in the variation of GDP is, to a large extent, the inertial result of the progressive recovery of economic activity aided by the vaccination process” , explain the analysts who consider that 2021 “really seems like a transition year” in which the GDP variation rates will be “not very representative” of a growth dynamics in the medium term, “since they will be unusually high compared to the big falls in GDP experienced in 2020 “.